When Israel withdrew all of its soldiers and civilians from Gaza in August 2005, it created a massive strategic void that has been filled by Hamas with extensive support from Iran and Syria. With the June 2007 putsch that expelled Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas’ Fatah organization from Gaza, Hamas became the undisputed ruler there. Buoyed by Hezbollah’s success in building a military force in Lebanon that proved capable of withstanding a withering military assault two years ago from Israel, the regional military superpower, Hamas is building a modern army.
Today, there are approximately 20,000 armed operatives in Gaza who answer directly to Hamas or can be integrated into its forces in an emergency. These fighters often undergo training in Iran and Syria, and then return to Gaza — either through an extensive network of tunnels or overland through the Rafah crossing, exploiting the weakness of the Egyptian security forces that are supposed to prevent such cross-border smuggling.
n addition to the weapons and personnel it has smuggled into Gaza, Hamas also possesses a substantial arsenal of 122-mm Grad rockets, anti-tank missiles, anti-aircraft missiles and machine guns, patrol boats and explosives. According to the Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center (ITIC), an Israel-based research organization, Hamas is working on increasing the armor-piercing capabilities of its improvised explosive devices, or IEDs (much as al Qaeda is doing against American troops in Iraq.) Hamas is walking a very fine line: Like its patrons in Tehran, it is opposed to Israel’s existence in any form, and is determined to strike it whenever possible. But it is probably in its interest to avoid for now the kind of mass-casualty terrorist attack that would provoke a large-scale Israeli military operation in Gaza analogous to Israel’s war in Lebanon in 2006.
So Hamas adopted a multi-tracked approach: steadily amassing weapons for a war with Israel several years from now while fielding a guerrilla-warfare infrastructure to fight the Israeli military if it invades during the next few months. The Hamas arsenal, which has grown substantially during the past year, includes artillery rockets and mortar shells smuggled into the Gaza Strip which can reach 12.5 miles into Israel — a substantial increase over the 7.5 miles that Hamas’ locally produced rockets can travel. This enables the Hamas rocket arsenal to reach Ashkelon, an Israeli city with a population of more than 100,000 people, and increases the threat to Israeli military forces operating near Gaza.
Advanced anti-tank weapons smuggled into Gaza improve Hamas’ ability to wage anti-tank warfare against Israeli forces at night. Hamas is increasing the armor-piercing capabilities of its IEDs so that they can penetrate the Israeli military’s armored vehicles. Its anti-aircraft equipment constitute a mounting threat to Israeli aircraft operating near Gaza. Like Hezbollah and Iraqi jihadists, Hamas is preparing to employ “asymmetric warfare” — conducting hit-and-run attacks and blending in with the civilian population, effectively turning them into human shields.
It is likely just a matter of time until this strengthened Hamas arsenal confronts the Israeli military for control of Gaza.
( Washingtontimes 2008)
argument: Non of these military groups are worth using Nukes on
2. Cost
Just how much has the United States spent on its nuclear weapons and everything associated with them?
For anyone who has ever delved into government cost accounting, you know how monumental a task it is to determine the government's cost of anything. There's the issue of then-year versus current-year dollars, varying rates of inflation, and if you go back far enough, shifting fiscal years. Add to that the kind of secrecy, compartmentalization and bureaucracy that prevails in national security matters and you are left with a true Gordian knot.
That's why a new book—Atomic Audit: The Costs and Consequences of U.S. Nuclear Weapons Since 1940—is so remarkable. Issued on June 30 by the Brookings Institution Press, its editor, Stephen Schwartz, director of the U.S. Nuclear Weapons Cost Study Project and a visiting scholar at Brookings, and his team set out to determine the comprehensive costs of America's nuclear weapons program from 1940 to 1996, including the cost of research and development, production, deployment, delivery systems, infrastructure, storage and cleanup. (To view parts of it online, go tohttp://www.brook.edu/fp/projects/nucwcost/weapons.htm)
It took four years of sifting through government records, many of them previously classified, and doing rigorous analysis to come up with the bottom line: $5.5 trillion dollars. If future cleanup, stockpiling and dismantlement is included, that rises to $5.8 trillion. Even with the Cold War over, the United States is spending $35 billion a year—14 percent of the defense budget, or $96 million a day—on nuclear efforts of which about $25 billion goes for operation and maintenance of the nuclear arsenal. The rest is spent on cleanup, arms control verification, and ballistic missile defense research.
( Brooking institute 2012)
The United States dug deeper into debt with its foreign creditors in November, according to government records released Tuesday.
Foreign investors bought $93.9 billion in long-term Treasuries in November, increasing their net holdings after purchasing $56 billion the month before, the Treasury Department said Tuesday.
Treasuries are traditionally perceived to be low risk because they're backed by the U.S. government. The latest data signals that their safe-haven reputation has not deteriorated among the international investing community, despite the country's growing budget deficit.
"There still is pretty strong demand for U.S. securities from abroad," said Jim O'Sullivan, chief economist with MF Global. "The recovery is increasingly looking intact with growth picking up and inflation tame, so it does look like the financial crisis is behind us."
At the same time that foreigners increased the U.S. debt holdings, U.S. residents curbed their spending on foreign bonds. Americans bought $8.8 billion of long-term foreign securities in November, after buying $27.1 billion in October.
By taking the difference between the two figures, the Treasury Department calculates net foreign purchases totaled $85.1 billion in November.
Many economists say Europe's debt crisis has kept demand for U.S. debt strong.
"When worries about the European sovereign debt crisis reemerge, demand for safe-heaven U.S. Treasury securities surges," Gregory Daco, U.S. senior economist with IHS Global Insight said in a research note.
The largest lender to the U.S. remains China, which slightly decreased its holdings to $895.6 billion, down $11.2 billion from the month before. The report comes just before a state visit to the U.S. by Chinese President Hu Jintao. The creditor-debtor relationship between the two world superpowers is one of the largest factors complicating their trading relationship.
( Brookings institute 2011)
3. Nuclear weapons are to dangerous to use
Effects of a Nuclear Explosion Damage caused by nuclear explosions can vary greatly, depending on the weapon’s yield (measured in kilotons or megatons), the type of nuclear fuel used, the design of the device, whether it’s exploded in the air or at earth’s surface, the geography surrounding the target, whether it’s winter or summer, hazy or clear, night or day, windy or calm. Whatever the factors, though, the explosion will release several distinct forms of energy. One form is the explosive blast. Other forms are direct nuclear radiation and thermal radiation. And then there’s radioactive fallout — not exactly energy released by the explosion, but still a destructive result.
Explosive Blast
Much of the damage inflicted by a nuclear explosion is the result of its shock wave. There are two components to a blast’s shock wave. First, there’s the wall of pressure that expands outward from the explosion. It is this pressure, measured in psi (pounds per square inch), that blows away the walls from buildings. A typical two-story house subjected to 5 psi would feel the force of 180 tons on the side facing the blast. (Download the Quicktime movie entitled house to see an example of a building subjected to this type of pressure.) Additionally, the blast creates a 160 mile-an-hour wind. And that’s only at 5 psi. The wind speed following a 20 psi blast would be 500 mph!
Direct Nuclear Radiation
A nuclear detonation creates several forms of nuclear, or ionizing, radiation. The nuclear fission (atom splitting) and nuclear fusion (atom combining) that occur to produce the explosion release, either directly or indirectly, neutrons, gamma rays, beta particles, and alpha particles. Neutrons are heavy particles that are released from atoms’ nuclei. These tiny “missiles” can easily penetrate solid objects. Another penetrating form of radiation is gamma rays, which are energetic photons. Both of these types of radiation can be deadly. Beta and alpha particles are less dangerous, having ranges of several meters and several centimeters, respectively. Alpha particles can cause harm only if they are ingested.
Thermal Radiation
You don’t have to be close to ground zero to view the bright flash created by the exploding bomb. The flash from a bomb has been viewed from hundreds of miles away. In addition to being intensely bright, this radiation is intensely hot (hence the name “thermal”). If you’re seven miles away from a one megaton explosion, the heat emanating from the fireball will cause a first-degree burn (equivalent to a bad sunburn ) to any exposed skin facing the light. If you’re six miles away, it will cause second-degree burns. And if you’re five miles away, the thermal radiation will cause third-degree burns — a much more serious injury that would require prompt medical attention.
The intense heat would also ignite a “mass fire” — i.e., a fire that could cause large areas to simultaneously burst into flames.
Fallout
You’ve seen the image: a mushroom cloud created by a nuclear explosion. Produced with a detonation at or near the earth’s surface, this type of explosion results in far-ranging radioactive fallout. Earth and debris — made radioactive by the nuclear explosion — rises up, forming the mushroom cloud’s stem. Much of this material falls directly back down close to ground zero within several minutes after the explosion, but some travels high into the atmosphere. This material will be dispersed over the earth during the following hours, days, months. In fact, some of the particles rising up through the mushroom will enter the stratosphere, where they could remain for tens of years.
Obviously, if a thermonuclear bomb exploded close to your home, you’d have little hope of surviving the blast. But what if one exploded 5 miles away, or 20 miles away? And what about radioactive fallout?
Learn about a nuclear weapon’s “zones of destruction” — choose between a relatively small detonation at earth’s surface, which will produce substantial fallout, and an especially destructive large detonation at high altitude.
1 Megaton Surface Blast: Pressure Damage
The fission bomb detonated over Hiroshima had an explosive blast equivalent to 12,500 tons of TNT. A 1 megaton hydrogen bomb, hypothetically detonated on the earth’s surface, has about 80 times the blast power of that 1945 explosion.
Radius of destructive circle: 1.7 miles
12 pounds per square inch
At the center lies a crater 200 feet deep and 1000 feet in diameter. The rim of this crater is 1,000 feet wide and is composed of highly radioactive soil and debris. Nothing recognizable remains within about 3,200 feet (0.6 miles) from the center, except, perhaps, the remains of some buildings’ foundations. At 1.7 miles, only some of the strongest buildings — those made of reinforced, poured concrete — are still standing. Ninety-eight percent of the population in this area are dead.
Radius: 2.7 miles
5 psi
Virtually everything is destroyed between the 12 and 5 psi rings. The walls of typical multi-story buildings, including apartment buildings, have been completely blown out. The bare, structural skeletons of more and more buildings rise above the debris as you approach the 5 psi ring. Single-family residences within this this area have been completely blown away — only their foundations remain. Fifty percent of the population between the 12 and 5 psi rings are dead. Forty percent are injured.
Radius: 4.7 miles
2 psi
Any single-family residences that have not been completely destroyed are heavily damaged. The windows of office buildings have been blown away, as have some of their walls. The contents of these buildings’ upper floors, including the people who were working there, are scattered on the street. A substantial amount of debris clutters the entire area. Five percent of the population between the 5 and 2 psi rings are dead. Forty-five percent are injured.
Radius: 7.4 miles
1 psi
Residences are moderately damaged. Commercial buildings have sustained minimal damage. Twenty-five percent of the population between the 2 and 1 psi rings have been injured, mainly by flying glass and debris. Many others have been injured from thermal radiation — the heat generated by the blast. The remaining seventy-five percent are unhurt.
1 Megaton Surface Blast: Fallout
One of the effects of nuclear weapons detonated on or near the earth’s surface is the resulting radioactive fallout. Immediately after the detonation, a great deal of earth and debris, made radioactive by the blast, is carried high into the atmosphere, forming a mushroom cloud. The material drifts downwind and gradually falls back to earth, contaminating thousands of square miles. This page describes the fallout pattern over a seven-day period.
Assumptions
Wind speed: 15 mph
Wind direction: due east
Time frame: 7 days
3,000 Rem*
Distance: 30 miles
Much more than a lethal dose of radiation. Death can occur within hours of exposure. About 10 years will need to pass before levels of radioactivity in this area drop low enough to be considered safe, by U.S. peacetime standards.
900 Rem
Distance: 90 miles
A lethal dose of radiation. Death occurs from two to fourteen days.
300 Rem
Distance: 160 miles
Causes extensive internal damage, including harm to nerve cells and the cells that line the digestive tract, and results in a loss of white blood cells. Temporary hair loss is another result.
90 Rem
Distance: 250 miles
Causes a temporary decrease in white blood cells, although there are no immediate harmful effects. Two to three years will need to pass before radioactivity levels in this area drop low enough to be considered safe, by U.S. peacetime standards.
*Rem: Stands for “roentgen equivalent man.” This is a measurement used to quantify the amount of radiation that will produce certain biological effects.
25 Megaton Air Blast: Pressure Damage
Radius of destructive circle: 6.5 miles
12 pounds per square inch
The remains of some buildings’ foundations are visible. Some of the strongest buildings — those made of reinforced, poured concrete — are still standing. Ninety-eight percent of the population within this area are dead.
Radius: 10.7 miles
5 psi
Virtually everything is destroyed between the 12 and 5 psi rings. The walls of typical multi-story buildings, including apartment buildings, are completely blown out. As you move from the center toward the 5 psi ring there are more structural skeletons of buildings standing. Single-family residences within this this area have been completely blown away — only their foundations remain. Fifty percent of the population between the 12 and 5 psi rings are dead. Forty percent are injured.
Radius: 20 miles
2 psi
Any single-family residences that are not completely destroyed are heavily damaged. The windows of office buildings have been blown away, as have some of their walls. The contents of these buildings’ upper floors, including the people who were working there, are scattered on the street. A substantial amount of debris clutters the entire area. Five percent of the population between the 5 and 2 psi rings are dead. Forty-five percent are injured.
Radius: 30.4 miles
1 psi
Residences are moderately damaged. Commercial buildings have sustained minimal damage. Twenty-five percent of the population between the 2 and 1 psi rings are injured, mainly by flying glass and debris. Many others have been injured from thermal radiation — the heat generated by the blast. The remaining seventy-five percent are unhurt.
NOTE: This information has been drawn mainly from “The Effects of Nuclear War” (Washington: Office of Technology Assessment, Congress of the United States, 1979) and the PBS Special “Race For The Superbomb”
The zones of destruction described on this page are broad generalizations and do not take into account factors such as weather and geography of the target.(National Terror Alert response center)
Con
1. Protection
Iran’s nuclear program is one of the most polarizing issues in one of the world’s most volatile regions. While American and European officials believe Tehran is planning to build nuclear weapons, Iran’s leadership says that its goal in developing a nuclear program is to generate electricity without dipping into the oil supply it prefers to sell abroad, and to provide fuel for medical reactors.
Iran and the West have been at odds over its nuclear program for years. But the dispute has picked up steam since November 2011, with new findings by international inspectors, tougher sanctions by the United States and Europe, threats by Iran to shut the Strait of Hormuz to oil shipments and Israel signaled increasing readiness to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Fears of an attack on Iran have driven up oil prices and represent a threat to the already fragile state of a global economy still reeling from asovereign debt crisis in Europe. At the same time, the Iranians have acutely felt the squeeze from a round of sanctions aimed at getting Iran to freeze its uranium enrichment program.
In March 2012, the global powers dealing with the program announced that they had accepted an Iranian offer to resume negotiations that broke off in stalemate more than a year before.
Iran also made an offer to allow international inspectors to have access to a secret military complex to which they have been denied access in Parchin, southeast of Tehran. But there were signs that the offer might be partial and conditional.
( New york times 2012)
Two senior American military figures - General Groves and Admiral Purnell - were convinced that two atomic bombs dropped within days of the other would have such an overwhelming impact on the Japanese government that it would surrender.
(www.historylearningsite.co.uk)
argument: With Iran's nuclear program America should keep it's nukes in Turkey should the U.S ever need to force Iran to surrender as we did Japan
2. Iran nuclear threat
Iran could start building a nuclear bomb in a matter of months, the UN atomic watchdog warned yesterday.
The regime of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is already thought to have built a top-secret explosives test facility at a site in Parchin, just outside the capital Tehran, where it is conducting experiments to develop a weapon.
A hard-hitting report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which was leaked last night, said scientists are building hi-tech precision detonators which would be essential for a nuclear device, and developing a uranium core for a nuclear warhead.
New UN evidence suggesting Iran was helped by several foreign scientists could provide further headache for Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
The report also lays bare that Iranian scientists are trying to mount a nuclear payload into their Shahab 3 missiles – which can reach Israel, Iran’s arch foe.
The report compiled by Yukiya Amano is the strongest sign yet that Iran seeks to build a nuclear arsenal, despite claims to the contrary.
The document claims that while some of the suspected secret nuclear work by Iran can have peaceful purposes, 'others are specific to nuclear weapons.'
A 13-page attachment to the agency's Iran report details intelligence and IAEA research that shows Tehran working on all aspects of research toward making a nuclear weapon, including fitting a warhead onto a missile.
The U.S. State Department said it needed time to study a new report by the U.N. nuclear watchdog agency on Iran's nuclear activities and declined to make any immediate comment on its contents.
'This was released to member states about an hour ago so we're going to take some time to look at it before commenting.'
State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland told a news briefing, referring to the latest Iran report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
'We are not prepared to talk about any next steps at this point.'
But with Israel threatening a military response, the report opens the way for a new confrontation between the West and Iran.
Iran is pursuing its nuclear weapons program at the Parchin military base about 30 kilometers from Tehran, diplomatic sources in Vienna say
Parchin has hundreds of structures and a number of fortified tunnels and bunkers for carrying out explosive experiments
Defence Minister Ehud Barak today appeared to play down speculation about an Israeli strike, insisting 'We don't want a war'
In its latest report on Iran, the International Atomic Energy Agency outlines the sum of its knowledge on the Islamic Republic's alleged secret nuclear weapons work, including:
- Clandestine procurement of equipment and design information needed to make such arms;
- High explosives testing and detonator development to set off a nuclear charge;
- Computer modeling of a core of a nuclear warhead;
- Preparatory work for a nuclear weapons test, and
- Developing and mounting a nuclear payload onto its Shahab 3 intermediate range missile - a weapon that can reach Israel, Iran's arch foe.
Ahead of the report's release, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak warned of a possible Israeli military strike against Iran's nuclear program.
He told Israel Radio that he did not expect any new U.N. sanctions on Tehran to persuade it to stop its nuclear defiance, adding:
'We continue to recommend to our friends in the world and to ourselves, not to take any option off the table."
The 'all options on the table' phrase is often used by Israeli politicians to mean a military assault, and Israeli government members have engaged in increased saber rattling recently suggesting that an attack was likely a more effective way to stop Iran's nuclear program than continued diplomacy..
While some of the suspected secret nuclear work outlined in the annex could also be used for peaceful purposes, 'others are specific to nuclear weapons,' said the confidential report obtained by The Associated Press.
The Iranian nuclear power plant in Bushehr, southern Iran - a site that may be targeted in a mooted military strike
Some of the information contained in the annex was new - including evidence of a large metal chamber at a military site for nuclear-related explosives testing.
The bulk, however, was a compilation and expansion of alleged work already partially revealed by the agency.
But a senior diplomat familiar with the report said its significance lay in its comprehensiveness, thereby reflecting that Iran apparently had engaged in all aspects of testing that were needed to develop such a weapon.
Also significant was the agency's decision to share most of what it knows or suspect about Iran's secret work the 35-nation IAEA board and the U.N. Security Council after being stonewalled by Tehran in its attempts to probe such allegations.
Copies of the report went to board members and the council, which has imposed four sets of U.N. sanction on Tehran for refusing to stop activities that could be used to make a nuclear weapon and refusing to cooperate with IAEA attempts to fully understand its nuclear program.
The agency said the annex was based on more than 1,000 pages of intelligence and other information forwarded by more than 10 nations and material gathered by the IAEA itself.
Earlier, Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad Tuesday criticized the head of the U.N.'s nuclear agency as an American pawn in the run-up to its expected release of a document said to document Tehran's nuclear weapons program.
IN DEPTH: THE FOREIGN EXPERT HELP
Former Soviet weapons scientistVyacheslav Danilenko allegedly taught Iranians how to build high-precision detonators that could trigger a chain reaction, according to UN evidence.
Danilenko was believed to have been contracted by Iran's Physics Research Centre, linked to the country's nuclear programme, in the mid 1990s.
He allegedly gave lectures and shared research on developing and testing bombs that Iran then incorporated into their warhead design, according to Washington Post sources with access to IAEA's files.
However, while Danilenko acknowledged his role he also said he believe his work was limited to assisting civilian engineering projects, the sources added.
There is also no evidence that Russia knew of Danilenko's Iranian activities.
Weapons experts added that Iran relied on foreign scientists for mathematical formulas and codes, some of which may have come from North Korea.
The design for a neutron initiator by father of Pakistan's nuclear programme, Abdul Qadeer Khan, was also discovered in Iran, sources said.The latest intelligence provided to UN nuclear officials, due for publication on Wednesday and obtained by the Washington Post, suggests former Soviet weapons scientist Vyacheslav Danilenkoallegedly taught Iranians how to build high-precision detonators that could trigger a chain reaction during the mid 1990s.'But it makes clear the Iranians want to be able to build such weapons quickly if need be.
Ahmadinejad said Iran will not stop its nuclear development, adopting a defiant position in advance of the report which could spur efforts for new sanctions against his country.
'If you think you can change the situation of the world through putting pressures on Iran, you are deadly wrong. The Iranian nation will not withdraw an iota,' Ahmadinejad said.
Iran insists its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, not weapons production.
The report, expected to be issued Wednesday, suggests that Iran made computer models of a nuclear warhead and includes satellite imagery of a large steel container the IAEA believes is used for nuclear arms-related high explosives tests, diplomats told The Associated Press.
In remarks broadcast on state television, Ahmadinejad said that International Atomic Energy Agency chief Yukiya Amano was simply repeating U.S. allegations. 'He delivers the papers that American officials hand on him,' Ahmadinejad said.
'I am sorry that a person is heading the agency who has no power by himself and violates the agency's regulations, too,' the Iranian president said.
He repeated Iran's stance that it is not involved in making a nuclear weapon. 'They should know that if we want to remove the hand of the U.S. from the world, we do not need bombs and hardware. We work based on thoughts, culture and logic,' he said.
Russia criticised on Tuesday the release of information in a U.N. nuclear agency report on Iran's nuclear programme, saying it would reduce hopes for dialogue with Tehran and suggesting it was aimed to scuttle the chances for a diplomatic solution.
'We have serious doubts about the justification for steps to reveal contents of the report to a broad public, primarily because it is precisely now that certain chances for the renewal of dialogue between the 'sextet' of international mediators and Tehran have begun to appear,' the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement.
It said time was needed to study the report and determine whether it contained new evidence of a military element in Iran's nuclear programme or was nothing but 'the intentional - and counterproductive - whipping up of emotions.'
Proof: A test-fire launch of a short-range missile in Iran. The UN now has a 'compelling case' that Iran is building an arsenal of nuclear weapons
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2059147/Iran-nuclear-weapons-row-Months-building-atomic-bomb.html#ixzz1qBOMhB2F
argument: we can not back down to Iran when they are still working on their nuclear arsenal
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